2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Trump - Arizona [11 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-11-05 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-11-08 18:35 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Clinton vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

 

Clinton Trump
 
 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-11-05 12:00

Insights West Dec w/4P [2]

45.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2016-11-04
2016-11-06

2016-11-08
2016-11-08 18:35

2016-11-05 12:00

Insights West All w/4P [2]

41.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2016-11-04
2016-11-06

2016-11-08
2016-11-08 18:33

2016-11-05 12:00

Data Orbital w/4P

44.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2016-11-04
2016-11-06

2016-11-07
2016-11-08 04:18

2016-11-05 00:00

Gravis w/4P

43.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2016-11-03
2016-11-06

2016-11-07
2016-11-08 12:03

2016-11-04 12:00

Google w/3P

41.0%

36.0%

Clinton
by 5.0%

2016-11-01
2016-11-07

2016-11-08
2016-11-08 08:53

2016-11-03 00:00

CVoter

43.2%

50.1%

Trump
by 6.9%

2016-10-30
2016-11-06

2016-11-07
2016-11-08 06:03

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-11-02 00:00

Data Orbital w/4P

39.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2016-11-01
2016-11-02

2016-11-04
2016-11-06 03:11

2016-11-01 12:00

SurveyMonkey EM w/3P

44.0%

43.0%

Clinton
by 1.0%

2016-10-29
2016-11-04

2016-11-05
2016-11-05 20:29

2016-10-31 12:00

Ipsos

41.6%

47.6%

Trump
by 6.0%

2016-10-28
2016-11-03

2016-11-04
2016-11-05 23:23

2016-10-31 12:00

Marist RV w/4P [4]

39.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2016-10-30
2016-11-01

2016-11-03
2016-11-04 21:51

2016-10-31 12:00

Marist LV w/4P [4]

40.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2016-10-30
2016-11-01

2016-11-03
2016-11-04 21:49

2016-10-31 12:00

Marist RV [4]

41.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2016-10-30
2016-11-01

2016-11-03
2016-11-04 21:48

2016-10-31 12:00

Marist LV [4]

41.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2016-10-30
2016-11-01

2016-11-03
2016-11-04 21:46

2016-10-30 12:00

Saguaro w/4P

45.0%

44.0%

Clinton
by 1.0%

2016-10-29
2016-10-31

2016-11-03
2016-11-06 04:00

2016-10-30 12:00

Emerson w/4P

43.4%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.6%

2016-10-29
2016-10-31

2016-11-02
2016-11-03 22:32

2016-10-30 12:00

Lucid w/4P

41.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2016-10-28
2016-11-01

2016-11-02
2016-11-03 19:24

2016-10-30 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

42.4%

49.3%

Trump
by 6.9%

2016-10-23
2016-11-05

2016-11-06
2016-11-07 15:16

2016-10-30 00:00

CNN LV [4]

46.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2016-10-27
2016-11-01

2016-11-02
2016-11-04 00:03

2016-10-30 00:00

CNN RV [4]

47.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2016-10-27
2016-11-01

2016-11-02
2016-11-04 00:02

2016-10-30 00:00

CNN LV w/4P [4]

44.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2016-10-27
2016-11-01

2016-11-02
2016-11-04 00:00

2016-10-30 00:00

CNN RV w/4P [4]

43.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2016-10-27
2016-11-01

2016-11-02
2016-11-03 23:57

2016-10-30 00:00

Data Orbital w/4P

41.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2016-10-29
2016-10-30

2016-10-31
2016-11-02 01:58

2016-10-28 12:00

Google w/3P

37.9%

32.9%

Clinton
by 5.0%

2016-10-25
2016-10-31

2016-11-01
2016-11-02 18:56

2016-10-27 12:00

YouGov w/4P

42.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2016-10-26
2016-10-28

2016-10-30
2016-10-30 20:49

2016-10-27 00:00

Data Orbital w/4P

40.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2016-10-26
2016-10-27

2016-10-29
2016-10-31 09:57

2016-10-26 12:00

CVoter

43.4%

51.3%

Trump
by 7.9%

2016-10-23
2016-10-29

2016-10-31
2016-11-02 22:44

2016-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey EM w/3P

42.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2016-10-20
2016-10-28

2016-10-28
2016-10-29 03:26

2016-10-23 12:00

Saguaro w/4P

48.0%

46.0%

Clinton
by 2.0%

2016-10-22
2016-10-24

2016-10-27
2016-10-28 04:53

2016-10-23 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

41.1%

49.4%

Trump
by 8.3%

2016-10-16
2016-10-29

2016-10-30
2016-10-30 22:34

2016-10-23 00:00

Monmouth w/4P

45.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2016-10-21
2016-10-24

2016-10-25
2016-10-27 04:05

2016-10-22 12:00

Google w/3P

39.7%

35.6%

Clinton
by 4.1%

2016-10-20
2016-10-24

2016-10-25
2016-10-30 14:45

2016-10-21 00:00

CCES w/4P

37.8%

46.3%

Trump
by 8.5%

2016-10-04
2016-11-06

2016-11-07
2016-11-08 02:17

2016-10-21 00:00

Ipsos

43.3%

42.1%

Clinton
by 1.2%

2016-10-14
2016-10-27

2016-10-28
2016-10-31 03:09

2016-10-20 00:00

CVoter

43.7%

50.9%

Trump
by 7.2%

2016-10-16
2016-10-23

2016-10-24
2016-10-29 18:37

2016-10-18 00:00

Data Orbital w/4P

41.0%

41.0%

TIED

2016-10-17
2016-10-18

2016-10-20
2016-10-23 17:58

2016-10-17 12:00

Google w/3P

41.8%

31.4%

Clinton
by 10.4%

2016-10-15
2016-10-19

2016-10-20
2016-10-23 07:10

2016-10-17 12:00

Ipsos

42.6%

44.6%

Trump
by 2.0%

2016-10-14
2016-10-20

2016-10-22
2016-10-22 22:13

2016-10-16 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

42.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2016-10-09
2016-10-22

2016-10-23
2016-10-25 19:14

2016-10-14 12:00

HighGround w/4P

38.5%

36.5%

Clinton
by 2.0%

2016-10-14
2016-10-14

2016-10-17
2016-10-19 00:57

2016-10-13 00:00

Morrison w/Lean w/4P [2]

43.3%

37.8%

Clinton
by 5.5%

2016-10-10
2016-10-15

2016-10-19
2016-10-22 05:44

2016-10-13 00:00

Morrison w/4P [2]

39.0%

33.9%

Clinton
by 5.1%

2016-10-10
2016-10-15

2016-10-19
2016-10-19 15:41

2016-10-13 00:00

CVoter

44.0%

50.6%

Trump
by 6.6%

2016-10-09
2016-10-16

2016-10-17
2016-10-19 08:39

2016-10-12 12:00

Reuters LV w/4P [4]

39.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2016-10-06
2016-10-18

2016-10-19
2016-10-31 11:43

2016-10-12 12:00

Reuters AA w/4P [4]

36.0%

36.0%

TIED

2016-10-06
2016-10-18

2016-10-19
2016-10-31 11:42

2016-10-12 12:00

Reuters LV [4]

38.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2016-10-06
2016-10-18

2016-10-19
2016-10-31 11:40

2016-10-12 12:00

Reuters AA [4]

35.0%

37.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2016-10-06
2016-10-18

2016-10-19
2016-10-31 11:38

2016-10-12 12:00

Google w/3P

40.0%

30.7%

Clinton
by 9.3%

2016-10-10
2016-10-14

2016-10-15
2016-10-19 02:29

2016-10-12 12:00

SurveyMonkey w/4P [2]

41.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2016-10-08
2016-10-16

2016-10-18
2016-10-18 21:35

2016-10-12 12:00

SurveyMonkey [2]

46.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2016-10-08
2016-10-16

2016-10-18
2016-10-18 21:33

2016-10-12 00:00

Data Orbital w/3P

43.0%

42.0%

Clinton
by 1.0%

2016-10-11
2016-10-12

2016-10-14
2016-10-16 06:47

2016-10-10 12:00

Ipsos

38.9%

44.6%

Trump
by 5.6%

2016-10-07
2016-10-13

2016-10-15
2016-10-16 01:19

2016-10-09 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

42.5%

47.0%

Trump
by 4.5%

2016-10-02
2016-10-15

2016-10-16
2016-10-25 15:46

2016-10-07 00:00

Google w/3P

38.2%

35.9%

Clinton
by 2.4%

2016-10-04
2016-10-09

2016-10-10
2016-10-11 05:28

2016-10-06 00:00

CVoter

43.8%

49.9%

Trump
by 6.1%

2016-10-02
2016-10-09

2016-10-10
2016-10-12 16:38

2016-10-03 12:00

Emerson w/4P

43.8%

41.9%

Clinton
by 1.9%

2016-10-02
2016-10-04

2016-10-06
2016-10-07 17:01

2016-10-02 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

42.3%

48.6%

Trump
by 6.3%

2016-09-25
2016-10-08

2016-10-09
2016-10-24 18:58

2016-09-30 12:00

Google w/3P

38.8%

32.9%

Clinton
by 5.8%

2016-09-27
2016-10-03

2016-10-04
2016-10-06 06:02

2016-09-30 00:00

Ipsos

42.2%

49.1%

Trump
by 6.8%

2016-09-23
2016-10-06

2016-10-10
2016-10-12 02:53

2016-09-29 12:00

Predictive Insights w/4P

42.0%

42.0%

TIED

2016-09-28
2016-09-30

2016-10-06
2016-10-09 03:41

2016-09-26 00:00

CVoter

42.0%

52.3%

Trump
by 10.3%

2016-09-19
2016-10-02

2016-10-03
2016-10-04 04:55

2016-09-25 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

40.7%

49.8%

Trump
by 9.1%

2016-09-18
2016-10-01

2016-10-02
2016-10-24 02:32

2016-09-24 00:00

Google w/3P

37.8%

33.8%

Clinton
by 4.0%

2016-09-21
2016-09-26

2016-09-27
2016-09-29 19:59

2016-09-23 00:00

Ipsos

44.1%

45.7%

Trump
by 1.6%

2016-09-16
2016-09-29

2016-10-03
2016-10-05 04:33

2016-09-21 12:00

Data Orbital w/3P

38.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2016-09-20
2016-09-22

2016-09-27
2016-09-28 04:18

2016-09-19 00:00

CVoter

41.7%

51.8%

Trump
by 10.1%

2016-09-12
2016-09-25

2016-09-26
2016-09-28 05:37

2016-09-17 12:00

Google w/3P

37.5%

32.1%

Clinton
by 5.4%

2016-09-14
2016-09-20

2016-09-21
2016-09-23 15:24

2016-09-16 00:00

Ipsos

41.7%

47.9%

Trump
by 6.2%

2016-09-09
2016-09-22

2016-09-26
2016-09-28 23:53

2016-09-13 12:00

Insights West w/4P

33.0%

37.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2016-09-12
2016-09-14

2016-09-21
2016-09-23 06:47

2016-09-10 12:00

Google w/3P

34.0%

34.6%

Trump
by 0.6%

2016-09-07
2016-09-13

2016-09-14
2016-09-18 18:31

2016-09-09 00:00

Ipsos

39.5%

46.1%

Trump
by 6.6%

2016-09-02
2016-09-15

2016-09-16
2016-09-17 21:55

2016-09-07 12:00

Marist RV w/4P [4]

37.0%

37.0%

TIED

2016-09-06
2016-09-08

2016-09-11
2016-09-12 05:31

2016-09-07 12:00

Marist LV w/4P [4]

38.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2016-09-06
2016-09-08

2016-09-11
2016-09-12 05:30

2016-09-07 12:00

Marist RV [4]

41.0%

40.0%

Clinton
by 1.0%

2016-09-06
2016-09-08

2016-09-11
2016-09-12 05:27

2016-09-07 12:00

Marist LV [4]

41.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2016-09-06
2016-09-08

2016-09-11
2016-09-12 05:22

2016-09-03 12:00

Google w/3P

34.9%

34.6%

Clinton
by 0.3%

2016-08-31
2016-09-06

2016-09-07
2016-09-11 02:34

2016-09-02 00:00

Ipsos

39.6%

45.9%

Trump
by 6.3%

2016-08-26
2016-09-08

2016-09-09
2016-09-12 02:19

2016-08-27 12:00

Google w/3P

37.2%

32.3%

Clinton
by 4.9%

2016-08-24
2016-08-30

2016-08-31
2016-09-11 02:33

2016-08-27 12:00

PPP

43.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2016-08-26
2016-08-28

2016-09-01
2016-09-02 03:01

2016-08-27 12:00

Gravis w/4P

40.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2016-08-27
2016-08-27

2016-08-31
2016-09-01 22:12

2016-08-26 12:00

Predictive Insights w/4P

40.0%

39.0%

Clinton
by 1.0%

2016-08-25
2016-08-27

2016-08-29
2016-09-01 22:16

2016-08-26 00:00

Ipsos

41.4%

44.6%

Trump
by 3.2%

2016-08-19
2016-09-01

2016-09-02
2016-09-04 06:15

2016-08-24 12:00

Morrison w/4P

35.1%

33.5%

Clinton
by 1.6%

2016-08-17
2016-08-31

2016-09-07
2016-09-07 17:37

2016-08-21 00:00

WaPo w/4P [2]

37.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2016-08-09
2016-09-01

2016-09-06
2016-09-06 16:26

2016-08-21 00:00

WaPo [2]

46.0%

45.0%

Clinton
by 1.0%

2016-08-09
2016-09-01

2016-09-06
2016-09-06 16:24

2016-08-21 00:00

CNN LV w/4P [4]

38.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2016-08-18
2016-08-23

2016-08-24
2016-08-26 04:46

2016-08-21 00:00

CNN RV w/4P [4]

38.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2016-08-18
2016-08-23

2016-08-24
2016-08-26 04:43

2016-08-21 00:00

CNN LV [4]

44.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2016-08-18
2016-08-23

2016-08-24
2016-08-26 04:39

2016-08-21 00:00

CNN RV [4]

44.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2016-08-18
2016-08-23

2016-08-24
2016-08-26 04:36

2016-08-20 12:00

Google w/3P

35.1%

26.9%

Clinton
by 8.2%

2016-08-17
2016-08-23

2016-08-24
2016-09-11 02:31

2016-08-19 00:00

Ipsos

43.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2016-08-12
2016-08-25

2016-08-26
2016-08-27 19:57

2016-08-16 12:00

Morning Consult w/4P [2]

35.3%

38.0%

Trump
by 2.7%

2016-08-01
2016-08-31

2016-09-08
2016-09-13 14:52

2016-08-16 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

40.2%

42.9%

Trump
by 2.7%

2016-08-01
2016-08-31

2016-09-08
2016-09-13 14:50

2016-08-13 12:00

Google w/3P

37.1%

32.9%

Clinton
by 4.2%

2016-08-10
2016-08-16

2016-08-17
2016-09-11 02:30

2016-08-12 00:00

Ipsos

39.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2016-08-05
2016-08-18

2016-08-19
2016-08-27 19:59

2016-08-04 00:00

YouGov w/4P

42.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2016-08-02
2016-08-05

2016-08-07
2016-08-07 16:24

2016-08-01 12:00

Predictive Insights w/4P

45.0%

42.0%

Clinton
by 3.0%

2016-08-01
2016-08-01

2016-08-02
2016-08-03 04:38

2016-07-29 12:00

IWS w/4P

41.3%

48.8%

Trump
by 7.5%

2016-07-29
2016-07-29

2016-07-29
2016-08-01 06:30

2016-06-23 00:00

PPP

40.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2016-06-22
2016-06-23

2016-06-28
2016-06-28 07:22

2016-06-20 12:00

Predictive Insights

46.5%

42.2%

Clinton
by 4.3%

2016-06-20
2016-06-20

2016-06-22
2016-06-22 16:59

2016-06-16 00:00

Democracy Corp [2]

43.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2016-06-11
2016-06-20

2016-06-30
2016-07-10 17:49

2016-06-16 00:00

Democracy Corp w/3P [2]

39.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2016-06-11
2016-06-20

2016-06-30
2016-07-01 06:29

2016-06-05 12:00

Private Poll

39.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2016-06-04
2016-06-06

2016-06-17
2016-06-19 06:14

2016-05-16 12:00

Morning Consult

37.9%

45.8%

Trump
by 7.9%

2016-04-01
2016-06-30

2016-07-14
2016-07-25 21:42

2016-05-14 12:00

PPP w/4P [2]

38.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2016-05-13
2016-05-15

2016-05-17
2016-05-19 03:45

2016-05-14 12:00

PPP [2]

41.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2016-05-13
2016-05-15

2016-05-17
2016-05-19 03:45

2016-04-08 00:00

BRC

42.0%

35.0%

Clinton
by 7.0%

2016-04-04
2016-04-11

2016-04-25
2016-04-30 15:34

2016-03-09 12:00

Merrill

38.0%

38.0%

TIED

2016-03-07
2016-03-11

2016-03-16
2016-03-19 15:43

2016-02-19 00:00

Morning Consult

38.8%

45.6%

Trump
by 6.8%

2016-01-01
2016-04-07

2016-04-13
2016-07-23 17:12

2015-12-07 00:00

Strategies 360

42.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2015-12-04
2015-12-09

2015-12-16
2015-12-19 19:56

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

44.6%

53.7%

REP
by 9.1%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-21 23:07

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

45.1%

53.6%

REP
by 8.5%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:38

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

44.4%

54.9%

REP
by 10.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-13 23:27

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

44.7%

51.0%

REP
by 6.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-05 07:10

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

46.5%

44.3%

DEM
by 2.2%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:13

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

36.5%

38.5%

REP
by 2.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:06

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

38.7%

60.0%

REP
by 21.2%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 03:08

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

32.5%

66.4%

REP
by 33.9%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 06:15

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

28.2%

60.6%

REP
by 32.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:10

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2016 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2016 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email abulsme@abulsme.com

 

2016 Electoral College: Intro | Tour | FAQ

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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