2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Trump - Arkansas [6 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-11-04 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-11-08 08:51 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Clinton vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Clinton		Trump

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2016-11-04 12:00	Google w/3P	30.8%	46.9%	Trump by 16.0%	2016-11-01 2016-11-07	2016-11-08 2016-11-08 08:51
2016-11-03 00:00	CVoter	37.0%	57.3%	Trump by 20.3%	2016-10-30 2016-11-06	2016-11-07 2016-11-08 06:05
2016-11-01 12:00	SurveyMonkey EM w/3P	34.0%	55.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2016-10-29 2016-11-04	2016-11-05 2016-11-05 21:10
2016-10-30 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	37.7%	53.5%	Trump by 15.8%	2016-10-23 2016-11-05	2016-11-06 2016-11-07 15:18
2016-10-28 12:00	Google w/3P	31.5%	36.1%	Trump by 4.6%	2016-10-25 2016-10-31	2016-11-01 2016-11-02 18:52

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2016-10-26 12:00	CVoter	36.5%	58.2%	Trump by 21.7%	2016-10-23 2016-10-29	2016-10-31 2016-11-02 22:46
2016-10-24 12:00	Ipsos	39.2%	49.6%	Trump by 10.4%	2016-10-14 2016-11-03	2016-11-04 2016-11-05 23:37
2016-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey EM w/3P	36.0%	52.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2016-10-20 2016-10-28	2016-10-28 2016-10-29 03:29
2016-10-23 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	37.3%	53.8%	Trump by 16.5%	2016-10-16 2016-10-29	2016-10-30 2016-10-30 23:12
2016-10-22 12:00	Google w/3P	36.7%	38.3%	Trump by 1.6%	2016-10-20 2016-10-24	2016-10-25 2016-10-30 14:43
2016-10-22 00:00	UArk	36.0%	59.0%	Trump by 23.0%	2016-10-18 2016-10-25	2016-11-02 2016-11-03 19:20
2016-10-21 12:00	Hendrix w/4P	32.5%	56.0%	Trump by 23.5%	2016-10-21 2016-10-21	2016-10-24 2016-10-27 07:24
2016-10-21 00:00	CCES w/4P	30.5%	48.0%	Trump by 17.5%	2016-10-04 2016-11-06	2016-11-07 2016-11-08 02:18
2016-10-20 00:00	CVoter	36.8%	57.5%	Trump by 20.7%	2016-10-16 2016-10-23	2016-10-24 2016-10-29 19:23
2016-10-17 12:00	Ipsos	34.0%	53.2%	Trump by 19.1%	2016-10-07 2016-10-27	2016-10-28 2016-10-31 03:11
2016-10-17 12:00	Google w/3P	27.3%	44.6%	Trump by 17.3%	2016-10-15 2016-10-19	2016-10-20 2016-10-23 07:07
2016-10-16 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	36.5%	52.2%	Trump by 15.7%	2016-10-09 2016-10-22	2016-10-23 2016-10-25 19:17
2016-10-13 00:00	CVoter	37.4%	56.7%	Trump by 19.3%	2016-10-09 2016-10-16	2016-10-17 2016-10-19 08:42
2016-10-12 12:00	Google w/3P	34.4%	38.1%	Trump by 3.7%	2016-10-10 2016-10-14	2016-10-15 2016-10-19 02:28
2016-10-10 12:00	Ipsos	34.4%	52.7%	Trump by 18.3%	2016-09-30 2016-10-20	2016-10-22 2016-10-22 23:27
2016-10-09 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	36.3%	53.5%	Trump by 17.2%	2016-10-02 2016-10-15	2016-10-16 2016-10-25 15:49
2016-10-07 00:00	Google w/3P	34.7%	40.2%	Trump by 5.6%	2016-10-04 2016-10-09	2016-10-10 2016-10-11 05:26
2016-10-06 00:00	CVoter	37.2%	56.1%	Trump by 18.9%	2016-10-02 2016-10-09	2016-10-10 2016-10-12 17:36
2016-10-03 12:00	Ipsos	35.6%	52.4%	Trump by 16.8%	2016-09-23 2016-10-13	2016-10-15 2016-10-16 01:23
2016-10-02 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	35.9%	55.6%	Trump by 19.7%	2016-09-25 2016-10-08	2016-10-09 2016-10-24 21:26
2016-09-30 12:00	Google w/3P	29.7%	45.4%	Trump by 15.8%	2016-09-27 2016-10-03	2016-10-04 2016-10-06 05:52
2016-09-26 12:00	Ipsos	37.9%	53.0%	Trump by 15.1%	2016-09-16 2016-10-06	2016-10-10 2016-10-12 03:18
2016-09-26 00:00	CVoter	35.8%	58.6%	Trump by 22.8%	2016-09-19 2016-10-02	2016-10-03 2016-10-04 04:58
2016-09-25 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	35.4%	56.6%	Trump by 21.2%	2016-09-18 2016-10-01	2016-10-02 2016-10-24 02:34
2016-09-24 00:00	Google w/3P	28.1%	45.5%	Trump by 17.4%	2016-09-21 2016-09-26	2016-09-27 2016-09-29 19:55
2016-09-19 12:00	Ipsos	41.3%	49.9%	Trump by 8.6%	2016-09-09 2016-09-29	2016-10-03 2016-10-05 04:37
2016-09-19 00:00	CVoter	36.0%	57.5%	Trump by 21.5%	2016-09-12 2016-09-25	2016-09-26 2016-09-28 05:42
2016-09-17 12:00	Google w/3P	36.4%	35.4%	Clinton by 1.0%	2016-09-14 2016-09-20	2016-09-21 2016-09-23 15:15
2016-09-16 12:00	Hendrix w/4P	34.0%	55.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2016-09-15 2016-09-17	2016-09-22 2016-09-23 14:42
2016-09-12 12:00	Ipsos	41.1%	49.1%	Trump by 8.1%	2016-09-02 2016-09-22	2016-09-26 2016-09-29 05:01
2016-09-11 12:00	Emerson w/4P	29.3%	57.0%	Trump by 27.7%	2016-09-09 2016-09-13	2016-09-15 2016-09-17 02:59
2016-09-10 12:00	Google w/3P	34.5%	35.1%	Trump by 0.6%	2016-09-07 2016-09-13	2016-09-14 2016-09-18 19:21
2016-09-05 12:00	Ipsos	41.3%	51.3%	Trump by 9.9%	2016-08-26 2016-09-15	2016-09-16 2016-09-17 22:43
2016-09-03 12:00	Google w/3P	33.8%	40.6%	Trump by 6.8%	2016-08-31 2016-09-06	2016-09-07 2016-09-11 17:51
2016-08-29 12:00	Ipsos	41.4%	49.8%	Trump by 8.4%	2016-08-19 2016-09-08	2016-09-09 2016-09-12 02:47
2016-08-27 12:00	Google w/3P	31.7%	42.4%	Trump by 10.7%	2016-08-24 2016-08-30	2016-08-31 2016-09-11 17:49
2016-08-22 12:00	Ipsos	42.2%	47.6%	Trump by 5.4%	2016-08-12 2016-09-01	2016-09-02 2016-09-04 08:00
2016-08-21 00:00	WaPo w/4P [2]	37.0%	46.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2016-08-09 2016-09-01	2016-09-06 2016-09-06 16:31
2016-08-21 00:00	WaPo [2]	41.0%	54.0%	Trump by 13.0%	2016-08-09 2016-09-01	2016-09-06 2016-09-06 16:29
2016-08-20 12:00	Google w/3P	27.6%	39.6%	Trump by 12.0%	2016-08-17 2016-08-23	2016-08-24 2016-09-11 17:48
2016-08-16 12:00	Morning Consult w/4P [2]	28.5%	44.8%	Trump by 16.3%	2016-08-01 2016-08-31	2016-09-08 2016-09-13 14:48
2016-08-16 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	33.5%	48.6%	Trump by 15.1%	2016-08-01 2016-08-31	2016-09-08 2016-09-13 14:46
2016-08-15 12:00	Ipsos	39.0%	48.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2016-08-05 2016-08-25	2016-08-26 2016-08-28 05:20
2016-08-13 12:00	Google w/3P	23.6%	41.0%	Trump by 17.4%	2016-08-10 2016-08-16	2016-08-17 2016-09-11 17:46
2016-08-08 12:00	Ipsos	40.0%	45.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2016-07-29 2016-08-18	2016-08-19 2016-08-28 05:22
2016-06-21 12:00	Hendrix w/3P	36.0%	47.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2016-06-21 2016-06-21	2016-06-26 2016-06-27 07:57
2016-05-16 12:00	Morning Consult	36.6%	46.7%	Trump by 10.1%	2016-04-01 2016-06-30	2016-07-14 2016-07-25 21:40
2016-02-19 00:00	Morning Consult	37.5%	47.0%	Trump by 9.5%	2016-01-01 2016-04-07	2016-04-13 2016-07-23 17:05
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	36.9%	60.6%	REP by 23.7%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-21 23:08
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	38.9%	58.7%	REP by 19.9%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:39
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	44.6%	54.3%	REP by 9.8%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-13 23:29
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	45.9%	51.3%	REP by 5.5%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-05 07:12
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	53.7%	36.8%	DEM by 16.9%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:14
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	53.2%	35.5%	DEM by 17.7%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:07
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	42.2%	56.4%	REP by 14.2%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 03:18
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	38.3%	60.5%	REP by 22.2%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 06:18
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	47.5%	48.1%	REP by 0.6%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:14

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

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