2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Paul - Iowa [6 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2015-08-08 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2015-08-12 07:29 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Clinton vs Paul National Summary

Poll Average

Clinton		Paul

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Paul	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2015-08-08 12:00	PPP	43.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 3.0%	2015-08-07 2015-08-09	2015-08-11 2015-08-12 07:29
2015-05-29 00:00	Gravis	43.0%	44.0%	Paul by 1.0%	2015-05-28 2015-05-29	2015-06-03 2015-06-05 13:15
2015-04-25 00:00	PPP	45.0%	43.0%	Clinton by 2.0%	2015-04-23 2015-04-26	2015-04-30 2015-05-02 15:47
2015-04-13 12:00	Gravis	44.0%	43.0%	Clinton by 1.0%	2015-04-13 2015-04-13	2015-04-21 2015-04-21 15:14
2015-04-03 00:00	Quinnipiac	42.0%	43.0%	Paul by 1.0%	2015-03-29 2015-04-07	2015-04-09 2015-04-10 05:36

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Paul	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2015-02-13 00:00	Gravis	44.0%	39.0%	Clinton by 5.0%	2015-02-12 2015-02-13	2015-02-17 2015-02-18 05:27
2015-02-10 12:00	Quinnipiac	45.0%	37.0%	Clinton by 8.0%	2015-02-05 2015-02-15	2015-02-18 2015-02-19 10:36
2014-10-06 00:00	DMR	44.0%	41.0%	Clinton by 3.0%	2014-10-03 2014-10-08	2014-10-11 2014-10-12 06:23
2014-09-27 00:00	PPP	47.0%	42.0%	Clinton by 5.0%	2014-09-25 2014-09-28	2014-09-30 2014-10-01 05:59
2014-07-10 12:00	Marist	45.0%	45.0%	TIED	2014-07-07 2014-07-13	2014-07-17 2014-07-18 05:08
2014-06-14 12:00	Quinnipiac	46.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 6.0%	2014-06-12 2014-06-16	2014-06-23 2014-06-23 19:37
2014-06-05 00:00	Loras	52.0%	37.5%	Clinton by 14.5%	2014-06-04 2014-06-05	2014-06-05 2014-06-13 00:27
2014-05-17 12:00	PPP	46.0%	42.0%	Clinton by 4.0%	2014-05-15 2014-05-19	2014-05-22 2014-05-22 18:49
2014-04-14 00:00	WFB	43.3%	44.3%	Paul by 1.0%	2014-04-13 2014-04-14	2014-04-14 2014-04-28 08:45
2014-03-08 00:00	Quinnipiac	49.0%	39.0%	Clinton by 10.0%	2014-03-05 2014-03-10	2014-03-13 2014-03-13 21:50
2014-02-22 00:00	PPP	47.0%	42.0%	Clinton by 5.0%	2014-02-20 2014-02-23	2014-02-27 2014-03-02 10:11
2013-12-13 00:00	Quinnipiac	45.0%	44.0%	Clinton by 1.0%	2013-12-10 2013-12-15	2013-12-17 2013-12-17 23:54
2013-11-24 00:00	Harper	46.8%	41.1%	Clinton by 5.8%	2013-11-23 2013-11-24	2013-11-26 2013-12-02 04:49
2013-07-06 12:00	PPP	48.0%	37.0%	Clinton by 11.0%	2013-07-05 2013-07-07	2013-07-11 2013-08-07 01:01
2013-05-18 12:00	Quinnipiac	46.0%	42.0%	Clinton by 4.0%	2013-05-15 2013-05-21	2013-05-24 2013-05-30 19:47
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	52.0%	46.2%	DEM by 5.8%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:28
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	53.9%	44.4%	DEM by 9.5%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-25 05:55
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	49.2%	49.9%	REP by 0.7%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 05:57
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	48.5%	48.2%	DEM by 0.3%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:29
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	50.3%	39.9%	DEM by 10.3%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 09:06
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	43.3%	37.3%	DEM by 6.0%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:29
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	54.7%	44.5%	DEM by 10.2%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 08:28
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	45.9%	53.3%	REP by 7.4%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:38
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	38.6%	51.3%	REP by 12.7%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:37

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

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