2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Kasich - Pennsylvania [20 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-06-16 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-07-25 20:31 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Clinton vs Kasich National Summary

 

Poll Average

 

Clinton Kasich
 
 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonKasichMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-06-16 12:00

Ballotpedia w/3P [2]

42.0%

38.0%

Clinton
by 4.0%

2016-06-10
2016-06-22

2016-06-29
2016-06-29 17:47

2016-06-16 12:00

Ballotpedia [2]

41.0%

43.0%

Kasich
by 2.0%

2016-06-10
2016-06-22

2016-06-29
2016-06-29 16:33

2016-04-19 12:00

Marist

45.0%

48.0%

Kasich
by 3.0%

2016-04-18
2016-04-20

2016-04-24
2016-04-25 06:01

2016-04-02 00:00

Quinnipiac

35.0%

51.0%

Kasich
by 16.0%

2016-03-30
2016-04-04

2016-04-06
2016-04-08 14:59

2016-03-06 12:00

Mercyhurst

36.0%

49.0%

Kasich
by 13.0%

2016-03-01
2016-03-11

2016-03-14
2016-03-15 06:00

2016-02-19 00:00

Morning Consult

40.1%

41.1%

Kasich
by 1.0%

2016-01-01
2016-04-07

2016-04-13
2016-07-25 20:31

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonKasichMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2015-10-10 00:00

PPP

41.0%

39.0%

Clinton
by 2.0%

2015-10-08
2015-10-11

2015-10-15
2015-10-16 08:42

2015-06-10 00:00

Quinnipiac

45.0%

39.0%

Clinton
by 6.0%

2015-06-04
2015-06-15

2015-06-17
2015-06-20 16:20

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.0%

46.6%

DEM
by 5.4%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:08

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

54.5%

44.2%

DEM
by 10.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-05 08:39

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

50.9%

48.4%

DEM
by 2.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:04

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

50.6%

46.4%

DEM
by 4.2%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:47

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

49.2%

40.0%

DEM
by 9.2%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 19:43

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

45.2%

36.1%

DEM
by 9.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:41

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

48.4%

50.7%

REP
by 2.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:47

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

46.0%

53.3%

REP
by 7.4%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:55

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

42.5%

49.6%

REP
by 7.1%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:10

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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