2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Carson - California [55 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2012-11-06 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2014-10-17 17:16 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Clinton vs Carson National Summary

 

Poll Average

 

Clinton Carson
 
 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonCarsonMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

60.2%

37.1%

DEM
by 23.1%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-21 23:09

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

61.0%

37.0%

DEM
by 24.1%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:41

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

54.3%

44.4%

DEM
by 10.0%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-13 23:30

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

53.5%

41.7%

DEM
by 11.8%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-05 07:42

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

51.1%

38.2%

DEM
by 12.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:15

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonCarsonMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

46.0%

32.6%

DEM
by 13.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:08

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

47.6%

51.1%

REP
by 3.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 04:02

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

41.3%

57.5%

REP
by 16.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:01

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

35.9%

52.7%

REP
by 16.8%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:16

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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