2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Bush - North Carolina [15 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-02-15 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-02-20 07:23 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Clinton vs Bush National Summary

Poll Average

Clinton		Bush

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Bush	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2016-02-15 12:00	PPP	42.0%	44.0%	Bush by 2.0%	2016-02-14 2016-02-16	2016-02-17 2016-02-20 07:23
2016-01-19 00:00	PPP	43.0%	45.0%	Bush by 2.0%	2016-01-18 2016-01-19	2016-01-20 2016-01-21 06:46
2015-12-06 12:00	PPP	43.0%	43.0%	TIED	2015-12-05 2015-12-07	2015-12-08 2015-12-10 04:12
2015-10-31 12:00	Elon	46.6%	43.0%	Clinton by 3.6%	2015-10-29 2015-11-02	2015-11-05 2015-11-06 07:24
2015-10-24 12:00	PPP	46.0%	43.0%	Clinton by 3.0%	2015-10-23 2015-10-25	2015-10-27 2015-10-29 04:03

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Bush	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2015-09-29 12:00	Civitas	41.0%	45.0%	Bush by 4.0%	2015-09-28 2015-09-30	2015-10-09 2015-10-15 07:47
2015-09-26 00:00	PPP	41.0%	46.0%	Bush by 5.0%	2015-09-24 2015-09-27	2015-09-29 2015-09-30 02:18
2015-09-19 12:00	Elon	42.6%	46.0%	Bush by 3.4%	2015-09-17 2015-09-21	2015-09-24 2015-09-26 00:48
2015-08-14 12:00	PPP	42.0%	42.0%	TIED	2015-08-12 2015-08-16	2015-08-19 2015-08-20 00:41
2015-07-04 12:00	PPP	45.0%	43.0%	Clinton by 2.0%	2015-07-02 2015-07-06	2015-07-08 2015-07-12 00:08
2015-05-30 00:00	PPP	47.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 7.0%	2015-05-28 2015-05-31	2015-06-04 2015-06-05 13:33
2015-04-30 12:00	Gravis	45.0%	44.0%	Clinton by 1.0%	2015-04-30 2015-04-30	2015-05-11 2015-05-12 06:10
2015-04-25 00:00	SurveyUSA	45.0%	43.0%	Clinton by 2.0%	2015-04-22 2015-04-27	2015-04-27 2015-05-01 03:58
2015-04-22 12:00	Elon	47.4%	44.0%	Clinton by 3.4%	2015-04-20 2015-04-24	2015-04-27 2015-05-01 04:38
2015-04-04 00:00	PPP	45.0%	44.0%	Clinton by 1.0%	2015-04-02 2015-04-05	2015-04-10 2015-04-11 06:40
2015-02-25 12:00	PPP	46.0%	42.0%	Clinton by 4.0%	2015-02-24 2015-02-26	2015-03-04 2015-03-05 02:30
2015-02-18 12:00	Elon	45.7%	40.2%	Clinton by 5.5%	2015-02-16 2015-02-20	2015-02-24 2015-02-25 03:53
2015-01-30 12:00	PPP	44.0%	44.0%	TIED	2015-01-29 2015-01-31	2015-02-04 2015-02-05 01:38
2014-12-06 00:00	PPP	46.0%	46.0%	TIED	2014-12-04 2014-12-07	2014-12-11 2014-12-12 05:00
2014-09-13 00:00	PPP	43.0%	45.0%	Bush by 2.0%	2014-09-11 2014-09-14	2014-09-16 2014-09-17 16:54
2014-08-16 00:00	PPP	46.0%	42.0%	Clinton by 4.0%	2014-08-14 2014-08-17	2014-08-20 2014-08-23 10:06
2014-07-29 00:00	Civitas	47.0%	48.0%	Bush by 1.0%	2014-07-28 2014-07-29	2014-08-06 2014-08-07 06:27
2014-06-14 00:00	PPP	45.0%	44.0%	Clinton by 1.0%	2014-06-12 2014-06-15	2014-06-19 2014-06-19 17:02
2014-05-10 12:00	PPP	45.0%	42.0%	Clinton by 3.0%	2014-05-09 2014-05-11	2014-05-14 2014-05-15 05:57
2014-04-05 00:00	PPP	45.0%	44.0%	Clinton by 1.0%	2014-04-03 2014-04-06	2014-04-10 2014-04-28 05:17
2014-03-08 00:00	PPP	47.0%	46.0%	Clinton by 1.0%	2014-03-06 2014-03-09	2014-03-12 2014-03-16 09:28
2014-02-08 00:00	PPP	47.0%	43.0%	Clinton by 4.0%	2014-02-06 2014-02-09	2014-02-12 2014-02-22 17:11
2014-01-11 00:00	PPP	46.0%	44.0%	Clinton by 2.0%	2014-01-09 2014-01-12	2014-01-16 2014-01-23 23:09
2013-12-07 00:00	PPP	46.0%	45.0%	Clinton by 1.0%	2013-12-05 2013-12-08	2013-12-12 2013-12-14 22:58
2013-11-10 00:00	PPP	47.0%	43.0%	Clinton by 4.0%	2013-11-08 2013-11-11	2013-11-13 2014-01-25 21:18
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	48.4%	50.4%	REP by 2.0%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:03
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	49.7%	49.4%	DEM by 0.3%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:36
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	43.6%	56.0%	REP by 12.4%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:58
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	43.2%	56.0%	REP by 12.8%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:38
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	44.0%	48.7%	REP by 4.7%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 17:30
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	42.7%	43.4%	REP by 0.8%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:35
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	41.7%	58.0%	REP by 16.3%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:32
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	37.9%	61.9%	REP by 24.0%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:45
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	47.2%	49.3%	REP by 2.1%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:01

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2016 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2016 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email abulsme@abulsme.com

2016 Electoral College: Intro | Tour | FAQ

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Tip Jar.

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

Page cached at 2019-03-04 18:54:57 UTC

Original calculation time was 0.606 seconds

Page displayed at 2024-11-21 12:53:57 UTC

Page generated in 0.057 seconds