2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Bush - Florida [29 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-02-03 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-08-27 07:37 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Clinton vs Bush National Summary

 

Poll Average

 

Clinton Bush
 
 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonBushMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-02-03 00:00

FSC

41.7%

45.0%

Bush
by 3.3%

2016-01-30
2016-02-06

2016-02-07
2016-08-27 07:37

2016-01-17 00:00

FAU

41.5%

45.0%

Bush
by 3.5%

2016-01-15
2016-01-18

2016-01-19
2016-01-21 08:04

2015-12-01 12:00

Saint Leo

47.3%

37.9%

Clinton
by 9.4%

2015-11-29
2015-12-03

2015-12-10
2015-12-10 14:49

2015-11-16 00:00

FAU

39.8%

44.4%

Bush
by 4.6%

2015-11-15
2015-11-16

2015-11-18
2015-11-22 11:52

2015-10-30 12:00

SurveyUSA

46.0%

44.0%

Clinton
by 2.0%

2015-10-28
2015-11-01

2015-11-03
2015-11-05 08:20

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonBushMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2015-09-30 12:00

Quinnipiac

43.0%

44.0%

Bush
by 1.0%

2015-09-25
2015-10-05

2015-10-07
2015-10-08 03:11

2015-09-19 00:00

FAU

40.9%

49.1%

Bush
by 8.2%

2015-09-17
2015-09-20

2015-09-22
2015-09-23 02:09

2015-09-18 12:00

Florida Chamber

37.0%

48.0%

Bush
by 11.0%

2015-09-16
2015-09-20

2015-09-29
2015-10-02 07:27

2015-09-12 12:00

PPP

42.0%

45.0%

Bush
by 3.0%

2015-09-11
2015-09-13

2015-09-15
2015-09-16 07:31

2015-08-13 00:00

Quinnipiac

38.0%

49.0%

Bush
by 11.0%

2015-08-07
2015-08-18

2015-08-20
2015-08-21 05:16

2015-06-10 00:00

Quinnipiac

46.0%

42.0%

Clinton
by 4.0%

2015-06-04
2015-06-15

2015-06-17
2015-06-20 15:31

2015-04-15 12:00

Mason-Dixon

43.0%

47.0%

Bush
by 4.0%

2015-04-14
2015-04-16

2015-04-20
2015-04-21 14:20

2015-03-23 00:00

Quinnipiac

42.0%

45.0%

Bush
by 3.0%

2015-03-17
2015-03-28

2015-03-31
2015-04-01 03:25

2015-03-21 00:00

PPP

47.0%

44.0%

Clinton
by 3.0%

2015-03-19
2015-03-22

2015-03-24
2015-03-24 17:29

2015-03-18 12:00

Saint Leo

47.0%

44.0%

Clinton
by 3.0%

2015-03-15
2015-03-21

2015-03-26
2015-04-01 05:14

2015-01-28 12:00

Mason-Dixon

42.0%

47.0%

Bush
by 5.0%

2015-01-27
2015-01-29

2015-02-06
2015-02-07 16:44

2015-01-27 12:00

Quinnipiac

44.0%

43.0%

Clinton
by 1.0%

2015-01-22
2015-02-01

2015-02-03
2015-02-04 05:48

2014-12-01 12:00

Saint Leo

42.0%

43.0%

Bush
by 1.0%

2014-11-25
2014-12-07

2014-12-10
2014-12-12 04:38

2014-10-23 12:00

Gravis

45.0%

46.0%

Bush
by 1.0%

2014-10-22
2014-10-24

2014-10-26
2014-11-01 07:04

2014-10-12 00:00

Gravis

37.0%

36.0%

Clinton
by 1.0%

2014-10-11
2014-10-12

2014-10-13
2014-10-14 21:43

2014-09-06 00:00

PPP

46.0%

44.0%

Clinton
by 2.0%

2014-09-04
2014-09-07

2014-09-09
2014-09-10 02:30

2014-08-19 12:00

Gravis

39.0%

37.0%

Clinton
by 2.0%

2014-08-14
2014-08-24

2014-08-29
2014-10-14 20:20

2014-07-19 12:00

Quinnipiac

49.0%

42.0%

Clinton
by 7.0%

2014-07-17
2014-07-21

2014-07-24
2014-07-25 00:52

2014-06-08 00:00

SurveyUSA

47.0%

41.0%

Clinton
by 6.0%

2014-06-05
2014-06-10

2014-06-10
2014-06-12 23:55

2014-06-08 00:00

PPP

46.0%

45.0%

Clinton
by 1.0%

2014-06-06
2014-06-09

2014-06-11
2014-06-12 22:49

2014-04-26 00:00

Quinnipiac

49.0%

41.0%

Clinton
by 8.0%

2014-04-23
2014-04-28

2014-05-01
2014-05-01 21:47

2014-01-25 00:00

Quinnipiac

49.0%

43.0%

Clinton
by 6.0%

2014-01-22
2014-01-27

2014-01-31
2014-03-02 09:38

2013-11-15 00:00

Quinnipiac

47.0%

45.0%

Clinton
by 2.0%

2013-11-12
2013-11-17

2013-11-22
2013-12-20 02:03

2013-06-14 00:00

Quinnipiac

50.0%

43.0%

Clinton
by 7.0%

2013-06-11
2013-06-16

2013-06-19
2013-08-07 00:43

2013-03-17 00:00

PPP

53.0%

40.0%

Clinton
by 13.0%

2013-03-15
2013-03-18

2013-03-21
2013-08-07 00:40

2013-03-16 00:00

Quinnipiac

51.0%

40.0%

Clinton
by 11.0%

2013-03-13
2013-03-18

2013-03-21
2013-03-22 22:54

2013-01-12 12:00

PPP

49.0%

44.0%

Clinton
by 5.0%

2013-01-11
2013-01-13

2013-01-17
2013-01-23 20:13

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

50.0%

49.1%

DEM
by 0.9%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:08

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

51.0%

48.2%

DEM
by 2.8%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:48

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

47.1%

52.1%

REP
by 5.0%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 01:26

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

48.8%

48.9%

REP
by 0.0%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-09 05:52

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

48.0%

42.3%

DEM
by 5.7%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:31

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

39.0%

40.9%

REP
by 1.9%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:16

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

38.5%

60.9%

REP
by 22.4%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 05:14

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

34.7%

65.3%

REP
by 30.7%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:24

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

38.5%

55.5%

REP
by 17.0%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:24

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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