2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Rubio - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-03-15 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-09-20 06:48 UTC

Earned EC: Trump 306, Clinton 232

Actual EC: Trump 304, Clinton 227, Powell 3, Kasich 1, Paul 1, Sanders 1, Spotted Eagle 1

Estimates below as of Election Day

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:

Best Polled:

	Clinton	Rubio	Margin
Current Summary



Rubio Best	191	347	Rubio by 156 EV
Expected	259	279	Rubio by 20 EV
Clinton Best	332	206	Clinton by 126 EV
The tipping point state is Pennsylvania where Rubio is ahead by 0.8%.



The 'Expected' scenario represents each candiate winning all the states they are ahead in. 'Best' scenarios represent the candidate winning all of the states they are ahead in, plus all of their opponent's 'weak' states. The 'tipping point' state is the state that puts the winning candidate over the top if the states are sorted by margin.

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

Switch to Column View

Solid Clinton 178 EV

District of Columbia | 3 EV| (((((80.3%)))))

Hawaii | 4 EV| (((((28.1%)))))

Rhode Island | 4 EV| (((((27.6%)))))

Massachusetts |11 EV| (((((27.0%)))))

New York |29 EV| ((26.4%))

Vermont | 3 EV| (((((25.0%)))))

Maryland |10 EV| (((((18.6%)))))

California |55 EV| ((((18.0%))))

Connecticut | 7 EV| ((((17.3%))))

Maine (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((16.9%)))))

Delaware | 3 EV| (((((15.9%)))))

Illinois |20 EV| ((((15.3%))))

New Jersey |14 EV| ((((15.2%))))

Maine (All) | 2 EV| (((((13.5%)))))

Washington |12 EV| (((10.4%)))

Strong Clinton 13 EV

Maine (CD2) | 1 EV| ((((( 9.8%)))))

Oregon | 7 EV| ((((( 8.2%)))))

New Mexico | 5 EV| ((((( 6.4%)))))

Weak Clinton 68 EV

Nevada | 6 EV| ((( 4.5%)))

Wisconsin |10 EV| 4.1%

Florida |29 EV| 2.5%

Virginia |13 EV| 2.2%

Minnesota |10 EV| ( 1.5%)

Weak Rubio 73 EV

• Pennsylvania |20 EV| 0.8%

Michigan |16 EV| 0.9%

Ohio |18 EV| 1.2%

New Hampshire | 4 EV| 2.2%

Colorado | 9 EV| 4.4%

Iowa | 6 EV| 4.4%

Strong Rubio 118 EV

North Carolina |15 EV| 5.3%

Texas |38 EV| (( 5.9%))

Kentucky | 8 EV| (( 6.0%))

Georgia |16 EV| ((( 6.7%)))

South Carolina | 9 EV| (( 7.7%))

Arkansas | 6 EV| ((((( 8.4%)))))

West Virginia | 5 EV| ((((( 8.9%)))))

Arizona |11 EV| ((( 9.2%)))

Missouri |10 EV| ((( 9.9%)))

Solid Rubio 88 EV

Indiana |11 EV| (((((10.2%)))))

Tennessee |11 EV| (((((10.2%)))))

Louisiana | 8 EV| ((((11.0%))))

Alaska | 3 EV| ((11.3%))

Nebraska (CD2) | 1 EV| (((((12.1%)))))

Mississippi | 6 EV| (((((13.3%)))))

Montana | 3 EV| (((14.6%)))

South Dakota | 3 EV| (((((14.8%)))))

Kansas | 6 EV| (((17.2%)))

Nebraska (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((17.7%)))))

North Dakota | 3 EV| (((((18.0%)))))

Alabama | 9 EV| (((((18.3%)))))

Nebraska (All) | 2 EV| (((((23.5%)))))

Oklahoma | 7 EV| (((((25.1%)))))

Idaho | 4 EV| (((((30.7%)))))

Wyoming | 3 EV| ((((35.4%))))

Utah | 6 EV| ((((37.8%))))

Nebraska (CD3) | 1 EV| (((((41.8%)))))

Ten most needed polls:
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada,
Ohio, Oregon, Arkansas, West Virginia, Maine (CD2)

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2016 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

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If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email abulsme@abulsme.com

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 9.1 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

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